G 1 writing assignment, Spring 2018:
Evaluating the potential effects of the next great earthquake in California.
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A working group of geologists (2007) established the probabilities of major earthquakes in California over the next 30 years. Overall, California has a 100% chance of a magnitude 5-6 earthquake, and a 93% chance of having a magnitude 7 or larger earthquake over the next 30 years (Field et al., 2015). There is also a 48% chance of a magnitude 7.5 over the next 30 years (Field et al., 2015). The working group incorporated the latest data on active faults as well as an improved understanding of how faults rupture to produce large earthquakes to arrive at their probability estimates. The working group determined a 60% probability of a 6.7 magnitude earthquake striking the greater Los Angeles area, likely along the southern San Andreas fault, and a 72% probability for the Bay Area, likely along the Hayward-Rodgers Creek fault (Field et al., 2015).
Earthquakes with a 6.7 magnitude can be deadly. Historical examples of such intense earthquakes, including the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake in the Bay Area (magnitude 6.9) and the 1994 Northridge quake in Southern California (magnitude 6.7), demonstrate the potential damage these events can cause. In December, 2016, a large earthquake off the coast of Mendocino (magnitude 6.8) occurred, though there was no significant structural damage or loss of life that resulted. The sharp contrast in final damage and loss of life between this recent earthquake and historical earthquakes of similar magnitude provides a fundamental point of investigation that you will explore.
As the above projections suggest, if you live in California, statistically speaking you will encounter an earthquake while you reside here. In this writing assignment, we’re asking you to anticipate the possible effects of a 6.7 magnitude earthquake in one of two locations of your choice: the Bay Area or the greater Los Angeles region. For your first draft assignment, write a 4-5 page paper that lays out the probable effects of a magnitude 6.7 earthquake in either the Bay Area or Southern California. Your paper should discuss the anticipated structural damages to the region as well as to the welfare of humans caught in the earthquake. Your paper should also explore why the damage/human impacts you discuss would occur based on where you anticipate the earthquake occurring (i.e. explain why an earthquake occurring in these areas is anticipated to cause the impacts you write about). The paper should be double-spaced with 1″ margins – use a 12 font. There are many sources of information on the web; the link below brings you to a primary publication source from the USGS regarding the working group’s latest report. Remember that you must build your paper using at least five references, and that you MUST include all references used (primary or secondary). The “References Cited” section constitutes page 6 of your paper. One page of maps may also be included as a figure, and this will NOT count towards your overall page count. Your second draft will add 1-2 pages of new information and revisions based on the critiques provided by your TA. No new figures will be permitted, but we will expect you to further research this topic and provide not only new information, but additional references. You will turn in your first draft along with your second draft for comparison purposes in the grading.
As a reminder, you are NEVER allowed to use Wikipedia, and citation of that webpage will result in an automatic 10% deduction from your final grade on the paper.
https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1165/
References Cited:
Field, E.H., and 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 2015, UCERF3: A new earthquake forecast for California’s complex fault system: U.S. Geological Survey 2015–3009, 6 p., https://dx.doi.org/10.3133/fs20153009.
