Assessment Guide (Component 1: Individual Portfolio)
Your Assessment is an individual portfolio.
|Word Limit: 4000 words||Assessment : Weighting for individual portfolio: 50%|
Submission procedure: Submission of this coursework is through Turnitin link on the module site.
Return of feedback and marked work:
Your marked assignment together with individual feedback would be made available to you through Turnitin.
Learning outcomes evidenced by this assignment
At the end of this module, students will be able to:
- demonstrate an understanding of the statistical properties of ARIMA and macroeconomic forecasting models
- demonstrate an ability of analysing, describing and interpreting time series business, economic and financial data using relevant computer software
- demonstrate an ability of answering basic real-life numerical questions
- evaluate the limitations of forecast results
- use precise language to explain what they think and to make judgements and decisions informed by reason or evidence
Subject-based practical skills
- collect, present and analyse economic and financial data
- Apply different forecasting methods using relevant computer software
Skills for life and work (general skills)
- Identify appropriate forecasting models for a variety of situations
- Contribute to planning and forecasting meetings within companies and financial institutions
- Make an informed and critical judgement about commentary and forecast written by professional forecasters such as analysts and management consultants
The assignment instructions below provide more details of what your submission should include.
Details of the tasks and Assessment strategy
Your assessment will be a portfolio of up to 2,000 words prepared during the duration of the module. This will require students to demonstrate an understanding of the main principles of Econometrics.
Students must complete this assessment and obtain an average mark of 30% in order to pass. In case where a student fails to achieve the overall pass mark (40%) he/she will be required to take the second opportunity assessment. You must also read the notes on mitigating circumstances provided in your student handbook very carefully.
Each student should complete all the tasks (1 to 4) set in the portfolio and the final copy must be submitted electronically through Turnitin. All steps regarding electronic submission can be found on this module site in Moodle.
Each individual will work with a different data set.
Portfolio Task 1 [30 marks ]
Download data from the UKDS database for a country of your choice and complete the following question: (ITALY)
- Consider a the following functional forms measuring the growth of real GDP
Ln(RGDPt) = B1+B2time + Ut
RGDPt = B1+B2time + Ut
Ln(RGDPt) = B1+B2time + B3time 2 + Ut
RGDPt is real GDP of a country
Download country specific data for the relevant variables for a period of at least 30 years and run a run a regression using Eviews and estimate the all 3 models.
Explain and analyse the above models. Explain the estimated slope coefficient and test significance. Comment on the R-squared value and test the significance of the overall model.
Compare the log-lin and non-linear models and explain which one you think is the better model using the different comparative criteria.
- Carry out the Ramsey Reset test for functional form that is superior and interpret your test results.
Task 2 [marks 30]
Download data from UKDS for the country of your choice and estimate the Phillips curve with annual data 1992 -2016:
Where is the inflation rate (%) and is the unemployment rate (% annual)
- Explain the theoretical relationships underlying the specification of the model.
- Analyse the estimation results and comment on whether the Phillips Curve holds for the country sample you are testing.
- Carry out the Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation Lagrange Multiplier Test and explain the conclusions you arrive at with regards to Serial Correlation.
- Carry out the Heteroskdasticity tests – (BP and White) and comment on your test results.
Task 3 [marks 40]
Use World Bank data to construct Real Household Consumption Expenditure (RCONS) and Real Disposable Income (RYD).
Estimate the following consumption function with annual data (30 years )
- Define the concepts of for stationarity and non-stationarity and identify the problems that arise from non-stationarity.
- Using the model above, test whether the variables are stationary. Show all the steps you have had to take and justify the conclusion you have arrived at. State the null and alternative hypotheses of the tests and your conclusions.
- Explain the concept of cointegration. Using the appropriate techniques to test for cointegration. What impact does cointegration have on the robustness of the model
Gujarati, D (2015) Econometrics by Example : 2nd ed. Palgrave
It is also important that you read and know all the rules on plagiarism in the student handbook and it must be noted that there is a heavy penalty for plagiarised work. If there is any evidence suggesting that plagiarism has occurred then the case would be referred to the University’s BREACH OF REGULATIONS procedures.
You must write the title of your essay in full at the beginning and the essay must begin with an introduction followed by the main body and then a conclusion.
- Your work must contain references together with a reference/bibliography list at the end
- You must follow the Harvard style for in-text referencing and for your end of list reference/bibliography
Presentation for your essay
Your work should be word processed and it must be written in font size 12
- A spell check must be done on your work before submission
- Your work must be written in correct English grammar.
- Your end of list references must be organised in alphabetical order
- You are required to put references in the body of the essay
- Your arguments must be coherent and accurate.
- You must show a clear understanding of the main issues.
- Pages should be numbered and your name should not appear on the script.
- When preparing your work you could start with an essay plan and then write your essay in rough first
- Then make amendments and use a spell and grammar facility to check your work before final submission.
- The required length of your essay is 2000 words.
You can refer to your material provided in your skills modules to make sure that you have conformed to academic conventions. Pay particular attention to:
- How you compose your introduction, the body of your essay, paragraph structure and conclusion.
For usage of Harvard referencing as specified in the book Cite them Right.
- You should be careful to include citations within your work as well as a reference list at the end. Unreferenced work will fail.
Submission of work Turnitin for Assessment
Your work must be submitted through Turnitin via Moodle. You have the opportunity to submit your work on Turnitin more than once as any earlier submission would be overwritten and only the final submission would be taken as your coursework submission.
Turnitin Originality Reports will assist in the identification of plagiarised work submitted for assessment. The system compares submissions to material that is to be found: on the world-wide web; in its database of previous submissions; and in its growing number of databases of published articles.
All work submitted for assessment must be your own work.
Detailed guidance on how to submit your work to Turnitin will be made available on this Module’s Moodle site.
If you fail to submit your work to Turnitin, in accordance with the guidance on the Moodle site, you will be awarded a mark of 0 for the component.
The material that you submit to Turnitin will be marked.
Please be aware that the Turnitin site will advise you that late submissions are accepted. This is only for the purposes of allowing students who are claiming extenuation to submit their work.
Please read the material in the submission folder and make sure that you attach the feedback sheet as requested and save the document using the format for the name of the document as specified.
In marking essays credit will be given for:
- Demonstrating how well students have met the relevant general learning objectives
All work undertaken for assessment receives a mark on a percentage scale. In deciding the mark you are to be awarded, markers are guided by the following assessment criteria; Your marked work will be released in about four week time after submission.
|Assessment Criteria||Weightings||Criteria based feedback||Mark Achieved|
|Application of appropriate Econometric techniques||40%|
|Critical analysis and evaluation of the results s||30%|
|Logical sequence of the arguments||10%|
|Evidence of Background reading||10%|
|Overall presentation grammar and spellings and Referencing||10%|
All work must be referenced throughout. WORK THAT HAS NO IN_TEXT REFERENCING WILL BE GIVEN ZERO.
Work that is inadequately referenced will suffer a marks penalty.
Essays MUST use the standard Harvard referencing system as indicated in Programme Handbooks
• Referencing should be consistent and complete.
Extenuating Circumstances are circumstances which:
- impair your performance in assessment or reassessment, or
- prevent you from attending for assessment or reassessment, or
- prevent you from submitting assessed or reassessed work by the scheduled date
You will need to retrieve this assignment if any of the following occur during the semester:
- You fail to achieve 30% or more for this assignment
- You fail to achieve 40% for the module and you failed to achieve 40% or more for this assignment.
You will be expected to complete a similar piece of work for your second attempt. .
Students who wish to appeal against Field and Award Boards decisions can find the relevant information at:
Grading Criteria Used To Assess Work
|General guidelines for standards expected at different levels of study.|
|Grade||Level 1||Level 2||Level 3|
|First (70% or above)||Thorough understanding of relevant ideas. Clear and well referenced argument. Coherent structure.||Ideas critically analysed. Argument is clear, succinct and well supported. Evidence of a wide range of reading and some independent thought.||Critical work evidencing excellent synthesis and application of ideas. Work is exceptionally well constructed and presented.|
|Upper Second (60-69%)||Sound understanding. Well written and relevant argument. Appropriately referenced.||Critical consideration of relevant ideas. Arguments are precisely defined and appropriately referenced. The work is structurally sound and well written.||Ideas are critically applied and coherently presented. Evidence of wide reading and some originality. Well referenced|
|Lower Second (50-59%)||Evidence of understanding and independent reading. Adequate referencing, but some unsubstantiated material. Weaknesses in spelling, structure & grammar.||Reasonable understanding of the relevant concepts, but some inconsistencies in application. Arguments are referenced, but disjointed. Poor structure, spelling or grammar.||Clear grasp of concepts and some critical application. Appropriately referenced and relevant argument. Reasonable structure and syntax. Well presented|
|Third (40-49%)||Indication of some understanding, but poor application of ideas. Minimal referencing. Generally weak structure.||Generally descriptive work with limited evidence of a critical consideration of ideas. Inadequate referencing. Weaknesses in structure, spelling and grammar.||Evidence of good understanding of issues, but crudely applied. Work indicates some critical thinking, but tends towards description. Argument may be unbalanced. Poor structure and presentation|
|Fail (below 40%)||Irrelevant or poorly analysed material. Indication of weak grasp of concepts. Inadequate structure. Poor grammar and spelling.||Uncritical. Poorly referenced. Argument indicates little use of relevant literature. Chaotic structure and generally badly written.||Poorly referenced and suggests inadequate exploration of relevant literature. Chaotic structure and generally badly written.|
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