Introduction
China’s population of more than 1.3 billion people has undeniably made it one of the fastest rising nations. The fact that it is the most populous country accounting for approximately one-fifth of the world’s population, China’s rise according to many scholars is natural and as such difficult to halt (Dellios2005, p. 3; Deng & Moore 2004, p. 117;Xuetong 2006, p. 7). Dellios insists that China has risen through the ranks beating all odds to become one of the globe’s largest trading nations in the world occupying the fourth place from the 32nd position in 1978 (2005, p. 3). Today, its GDP is estimated to contribute 13% of the total world’s output, just one place behind the world’s leader, USA (Dellios2005, p. 3; Nye 2005, p. 6). Bull insists that great powers refer to a society of nations, states, or countries that seek to establish and maintain a global balance of power which is important in the prevention of global dictatorship that come about a result of imperial contests(1977, p. 1134).
This paper seeks to demonstrate that the rise of China to attain a great power status will not only be violent and aggressive but will also go a long way in creating a competitive global environment whose impacts on international politics will overtly be negative and potentially detrimental. Through an analytical exploration of relevant literature on global politics, security, and different international relation theories, this paper goes ahead to show that China, contrary to many western historians, did not start claiming a place among the world’s great powers recently, but it was once a great power, declined and the modern China is in the process of reclaiming its lost status.
China’s Historical Rise and Decline as a Great Power
Petras insists that most western economic historians have misrepresented the historical China as stagnant and narrow-minded society, a view that is false and biased (2012). The modern China and its rise to the status of a great power in the world started way back as early as 1100; a journey that has taken twists, braved challenges and setbacks to become what it is today. By 1078, China was already the largest producer of steel in the world (125,000 tones), the world leader in industrial novelty in textile manufacturing close to six centuries prior to the Britain’s Textile revolution (Petras 2012). Hobson affirms that China’s leading position in the world was challenged by the sudden rise of Britain’s Imperialism that assimilated and incorporated its advanced technological, navigational and market innovations (2004, p.225). The colonization of Chinese markets by western powers diluted China’s economic power and by the 20th century, China had fallen to semi-colonial nation (Petras 2012; Hobson 2004, p. 229).
The rise of the modern China from the start of the 20thcentury after its decline has not been a peaceful journey. From the mid-20th century communist revolution that saw invading Japanese army and the US led imperialist armies defeated to bring together a more unified country to the great Chinese Mao-led Cultural Revolution, the rise of China has not been a walk in the park (Petras 2012). Today, China has established itself as a robust trading, economic and investment centre around the globe controlling a significant portion of the world’s total output (Gao &Riskin 2009, p. 22). The well-knit bilateral links between China and many nations of the world have become indispensable in the continued development of many third world countries (Breslin 2010, p. 53; Ding 2010, p. 260).
The Rise of China
Fravel asserts that the question as to whether the rise of China to a great power status will be peaceful or violent continues to animate international relations scholars (2010, p. 505). Nevertheless, the conduct of China within the international community over the recent years points to the fact its rise to the top will not be free of violence and confrontation with other key players and great powers that have since dominated global politics (Mearsheimer2006, p. 160). Breslin observes that China has been known to be a custodian of traditions and culture whose influence goes beyond domestic relations (2010, p. 53). Zhang and Lee observe that the influence of ancient and traditional Chinese political ideologies on how the country relates with other players on the global platform has reduced immensely over the years (2014, p. 55). However, they affirm that these traditional political ideologies have not been substituted by the country’s traditional culture as the guiding principle of its behavior and interactions with other nations of the world.
Examining closely the exponential rise of China through the lens and perspective of the power transition theory supports the verity that its rise to the status of great power will not be a smooth and peaceful path(Taylor Fravel2010, p. 507; Deng & Moore 2004, p. 117; Foot 2006, p. 81).The power transition theory holds that conflict and violence becomes unavoidable and imminent when a rising power which is disgruntled with the state of affairs pursues parity with the leading state or system and the will to employ force to reshape the system’s rules, states or even institutions is always domineering (Taylor Fravel 2013, p. 506; Walt 1998, p. 30). According to its creator, Organski, the power transition theory maintains that when there is an even and equal distribution of political, financial and even military capabilities between groups pursing similar interest, the likelihood of violence and war ensuing increases.
The rise of China is characterized by attempts to expand its influence over its neighbors in the Asian continent (Kim 2003, P. 44; Zhao 2016, p. 44). Tension between China and USA over Taiwan continue to grow as both players seek to maintain their global influence and diplomacy; a classical characteristic of great powers (Callahan 2005, p. 706). This is well described by the theory of offensive realism which asserts that nations or states tend to pursue expansion as they grow in strength and influence over others (Walt 1998, p. 30; Kirshner2012, p. 57). In the archaic world, power is looked at a source of security and as such, stronger and powerful states are more likely to pursue expansion in order to realize regional hegemony. Proponents of this theory insist that the rise of China to a great power will be prone to armed conflict and violence (Taylor Fravel 2014, p. 506). The fact that China’s rise characterized by attempts to tilt the equilibrium against western great powers and make the Eastern hemisphere self-dependent possess a huge risk to international security and peace a whole (Drezner2009, p. 21).
The rise of China and its conduct within the international community continues to raise many eyebrows considering that China is a communistic nation among western powers which are overly capitalistic and promoters of liberalism (Ikenberry2008, p. 24). Western powers led by Britain and the US promote the values of democracy, human rights, and a freely accessible and open international which are important in maintaining global order and security especially in the developing world which encompasses most Asian states. The western great powers embrace the liberalism school of thought that insists on the importance of international institutions and their indispensable role in states cooperation and interdependence among nations a way of fostering peaceful resolutions of conflicts, transnational development and economic growth (Ikenberry2008, p. 26; Kirshner2012, p. 63).
China’s rise to claim a position among the great powers poses a threat to already established international norms since China brings with it several ideologies in international governance. Ultimately, this is recipe for conflict and proves that its ascension to a great power will not be as peaceful as expected. Even though its ideologies do not directly oppose liberal values being championed for by western allies, its counter-norm of international diversity seems to limit them (Ikenberry2008, p. 26; Taylor Fravel2010, p. 509). Its rise and consequential pursuit of diversification that contradicts liberalism school of thought is likely to stir conflicts and misunderstanding amongst key players within the international community and hence threaten global security.
China has participated in the most number of territorial disputes compared to any other state in the world since World War II ended (Fravel, 2010, p. 507). Nevertheless, China has managed to settle most of the disputes peacefully through bilateral talks; most of which have not benefitted it in terms of its desire to expand and extend its control over East Asia. It has used military force in very few of these disputes conquering and seizing very little land that it did not have control over before the conflicts. Most international relations scholars have observed that the imperial China was particularly more interested in achieving cultural hegemony over states in its region rather than having the physical control and dominance over them (Taylor Fravel 2010, p. 507; Ding & Saunders 2006, p. 19). However, the modern China is fast becoming confrontational owing to the fact that in order to establish itself as great power in the anarchic world, it must achieve regional hegemony characterized with physical control over other states and have its military power strong. The recent conflict between the United States and China over South China Sea’s reclamation of land and construction on contested reefs put China on the spot as the regions upcoming and strong military power posing threats to its neighbors such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam.
The Impacts of China’s Rise to a Great Power Status
Mearsheimer (2014, p. 1) observes that the end of the cold war back in 1989 with the consequential fall of the soviet union several months later gave the United States the status of the only great power and undoubtedly the most powerful state in the world. The fact that the world had taken a unipolar fashion with USA being the only great power that existed beyond 1989 changed the face of international politics and to large extend contributed to the realization of a more peaceful world with states embracing resolution of conflicts through accommodation and negotiations. The United States engaged in more than six wars most of which were anti-terror after the cold war in 1989 with Iraq in 1991 and the Libyan war of 2011 being among the most prominent in attempt to maintain order and uphold international security. Interest in great power politics had withered away within the international community as states concentrated more on reclaiming their status and strengthen their foreign policies. Ultimately, the emergence, rise and international conduct of China threaten to reignite the politics of great powers; a reality that will greatly weaken the rubrics that hold the international community together (Dellios 2005, p. 3).
The rise of China to a great power status will create a more polarized and divided world in its pursuit to establish a state of balance in international politics which according to Deng & Moore is by and large the aim of any rising power that is not contended with the status quo and therefore seeks to change it (2004, p. 117). The exponential growth of China’s economy as it is the case now is likely to encourage it to go an extra mile and dominate the entire eastern hemisphere not only economically but also physically (Mearsheimer 2010, p. 389). This is best predicted by the offensive realism theory which holds that as states expand and become more powerful, they tend to expand their influence culturally, economically and also politically over its close territories. The growth and possible dominance over the east by China is aimed at reducing the influence of the United States over this region and limit it mostly to the western hemisphere, a move that will most likely spark conflict between the West and China(Mearsheimer2010, p. 386; Pan 2004, p. 308). China’s efforts to achieve regional hegemony in Asia will not be tranquil as it will be met with resistance from not only the western powers led by USA but also its immediate neighbors. This will bring back the politics of great powers in international politics characterized by the desire to dominate over others and rule over smaller states across the world as a show of power hence creating divisions within the international community (Deng & Moore 2004, p. 119; Gu et al. 2008, p. 276).
The rise of China to become a great power will cripple and wear out the war against terrorism across the world in spite of its ever growing military capability according to Gu et al. and Hung (2008, p. 276; 2008, p. 152). For quite a number of years, China has been implicated in suspicious exportation of sensitive military technology and resources to states that have been considered sponsors of terrorisms. This include Iran, Iraq, and Syria among others raising questions about its commitment in the war against terrorism. As China continues to establish itself as a military powerhouse with an armory of more than 30 Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM), 110 Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBM), and Submarine Missile Launch Capacity among other modernized military capabilities, the risk of such technologies getting into the hands of terrorist increases daily (Dellios2005, p. 3). Its proximity to war tone regions of the world is likely to influence anti-terrorism war and water down the steps that have already been made in curbing international terrorism across the globe. The constant reinvention and perfection China’s military capabilities and resources in order to march World leaders such as USA pose a serious threat to international security and peace. Scholars argue that the possibility of such resources reaching the enemies of USA and other western nations such as Britain actively involved in anti-terrorism is high thus threatening international security (Ikenberry 2008, p. 26).
The rise of China to a great power status will prompt it to create free and open global markets across many regions that can easily spin out of control and devastatingly hurt the world economy. Open global markets have the capacity to foster economic development, create wealth, job and employment opportunities if they are regulated effectively (Drezner2009, p. 21; Gao &Riskin2009, p. 22; Power 2008, p. 17). However, the consequences that follow the collapse of such open global markets are usually dire and detrimental with millions of lives, jobs, incomes and resources being lost. As the world’s fourth largest trading nation, China has established itself as one of the most attractive destination for investors with the country’s GDP forming 13% of the total world’s output by as at 2005 (Dellios2005, p. 3). The plans by China to merge with the world’s largest regional trading blocs such as ASEAN has raised a lot of concerns among western nations which stand to lose their dominance over the Asian markets. China entry into the South Eastern Asian market as a rising great economic power has precipitated the reduction of tariffs from around 41% to as low as 5% and more reduction in tariffs continues to be anticipated (Dellios2005, p. 3; Power 2008, p. 17). This has been seen as a move to consolidate its regional hegemony and win smaller states towards its side as a rising power.
China as a great power and its desire to not only reshape international politics but also establish a new order in international politics where its interest will be taken care of is a true reflection that its intentions are not entirely for the good of all players within the international community. According to international relations scholars, China’s greatest endeavor is to loosen international policies and foundations that were laid down by western great powers and the unipolar international system after the cold war in order to safeguard its interests (Ding 2010, p. 259; Goldstein 2001, p. 843). Having a seemingly relaxed and loose system will in the end slow down the process of decision making especially on issues that are of great concern as nations will be competing to push through their individual interest first.
According to Dellios, most decisions concerning international security especially in the UN Security Council are largely influenced by the United States and other European states such Britain (2005, p. 3). With China in the picture as an equal member and power, the likelihood of having competing interests and unnecessary supremacy scuffles is very high as nations will support decisions that favor their interest. This will manifest especially on issues that touch on international security such as the Iraq invasion that was undertaken by USA in spite of objections from several members of the UN Security Council including China. China as great power will seek to win the support of smaller states across and pose as an alternative to the western great powers thus heightening antagonism within the international system (Goldstein 2001, p. 843; Mearsheimer2010, p. 389). China’s attempts to indirectly oppose liberalism and interdependence as a way of enhancing international security are a valid threat to international security.
Nonetheless, divergence and disagreements amongst international relations scholars over the postulation that China’s rise will be violent, vicious and to great extend ferocious persists to boil (Dellios 2005, p. 3; Ding 2010, p. 270). China’s zeal and determination to participate and even be part of international bodies and organizations that support cohesion, democracy, international security and economic empowerment continues to cast aspersions on the belief violence was the only way to the top. Today, China is a strong member of the United Nations Security council contributing the highest number of troops to peacekeeping missions as compared to other permanent members of the Security Council (Dellios 2005, p. 3). This gesture has been seen by proponents of violence as the only way China can become a great power as a step towards creating a harmonious world where China can secure its national interests and gain military experience without falling out with other great powers (Drezner 2009, p. 37).
China has established itself as one of the best economies to invest in; a move that has attracted other states and nations into transnational trade with it (Ding 2010, p. 269; Drezner 2009, p. 17). Through the creation of interdependence amongst nations, a secure and peaceful international community can be established and sustained. China’s quest to become a great power in a peaceful and nonviolent way has been seen as the fuel behind the establishment of free trade areas and its active participation in international trade organization such as the World Trade Organization (WTO). In a bid to evade confrontations and collision with other great powers with greater military and economic capabilities such as USA, China has embraced peaceful resolution of both political and economic disputes (Ding 2010, p. 270; Dellios 2005, p. 3). However, the fact that China is working round the clock to strengthen its military technology and capabilities contradicts the belief that it seeks to embrace a peaceful rise to a great power.
Conclusion
Indeed, an exploration of the ancient China that set the standard for western modernization, the various reasons why China’s rise to great power status is likely to turn violent and the overly negative impacts its rise will have on the international community proves beyond any reasonable doubt that China’s rise is a threat to international security and peace. The major reason why China’s rise to the status of a great power will not be peaceful and tranquil is the fact that China’s greatest desire is to challenge the already established international order not only through ideals but also violence. The impacts of China as a great power will most likely impact the world negatively because its determination and grit to challenge the status quo is fueled by its interests as a nation and the desire to establish a transactional relationship with other nations in order to benefit itself more. It is only through accommodation and cultivation of cordial international relationships with all players within the international community that China will realize its goals peacefully and in the process empower other developing nations across the world.
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