Quantitative Analysis Managers
Part I.
- Judges 7: 1-7
How Gideon assesses his risk when called to deliver his people.
From the verse, it could be seen that Gideon assesses his risk by the number of men on his side. He had a belief that the more the number of men with him, the stronger his team and therefore the higher their probability of succeeding or in this context, conquering.
How did God assess the risk?
Contrary to Gideon, it could be seen that God assesses His risk by placing a lot of emphasis and value on the spiritual strength of the individuals who partake in a particular course.
How I assess my personal risks
I evaluate my personal risks depending on both the nature and value of the task that l plan to undertake. If it is a project that requires a lot of physical strength, then l would prefer a sufficient number of individuals to undertake it. However, if the project demands more of mental toughness as opposed to physical power, for instance, in the case of a group discussion on a coursework assignment, then l would prefer to involve only the people with the requisite mental capacity to execute that particular project.
Should l use my approach or Gods’?
I would prefer to use God’s approach. The reason why l would prefer to operate under the guidance of God is that it is presumed that He is an all-knowing, an omnipotent, and a super being that cannot err. I would, therefore, willingly follow his command, guidance, and unquestionable authority to execute my undertakings.
- Acts 26
What decision was faced by King Agrippa as he listened to Paul’s story?
It could be reasoned that King Agrippa was faced with the decision of either exonerating Paul from the charges that had been leveled against him or recommend further prosecution for Paul if he is convicted of the charges. Some of the allegations raised against him were that he was proclaiming the gospel of a God and a Messiah that were not recognized by the people of King Agrippa. Such deeds were considered tantamount to subversion.
What was Paul like before meeting the Lord?
From his confessions, it could again be seen that in his earlier lives before meeting the Lord, Paul was an ardent persecutor of those that were proclaiming the message of the Lord. Under the authority of chief priests, he was in charge of incarcerating those people who were perceived to be advocating for Christianity as a religion.
What was Paul like after meeting the Lord?
After meeting the Lord, in figural terms, on his way to Damascus on an official trip, he began to demonstrate a stark change of character and mentality concerning his duty and religious doctrines respectively. He had converted from the Jewish religion to Christianity and was now proclaiming the virtues of the people whom he had prosecuted in the past under the authority of Jewish chief priests.
Should my relationship with the Lord be something that changes me? How?
My relationship with God ought to be positively transformative. As earlier earlier mentioned, religious principles are substantially connected to faith and belief. Therefore, God is believed to an all-powerful being which places Him as the best being from whom one can learn and draw inspirations. As such, His omnipotence status exalts Him as an ultimate guide both in deeds and in principle, a perfect teacher, and an infallible referee.
- Daniel 2
Did the sorcerers, magicians, enchanters, and astrologers try to interpret Nebuchadnezzar’s dream using irrelevant information?
The sorcerers, magicians, enchanters, and astrologers did not try to interpret Nebuchadnezzar’s dream using irrelevant information. According to them, it was not within their discretion to interpret the dreams that had been experienced by the king. They were firm in confiding to the king that the only person who could interpret his dream was God himself, whose existence was not in the flesh.
What was the result?
The result of their failure to interpret the king’s dream was dire. They were swiftly incarcerated, and an order was given to Arioch, a captain of the King’s guard to see to their execution.
What was Daniel’s source of information?
Daniel’s source of information regarding the king’s dream was God. God was able to reveal to Daniel the King’s dream after the former had requested his compatriots like Mishael, Azariah, and Hananaiah to assist him in seeking for a divine assistance from God to interpret the king’s dream. It could be concluded that Daniel’s source was relevant since he was able to do a satisfactory revelation of the King’s dream which was neither interjected by the king nor questioned by any of his servants. Equally, he did a complete detailed interpretation of the same dream.
How often in your life do you find you consider the irrelevant information when trying to understand your circumstances?
Occasionally, l find that l consider irrelevant information when trying to understand my circumstances that l get engrossed in.
- Daniel 1
How did Daniel and his three friends handle the risk of defiling themselves with the King’s table?
Daniel and his three friends handled the risk of defiling themselves with the king’s food by exercising incredible intrepidity and offering a simple challenge to the eunuch who was assigned to take care of their needs. The challenge was that Daniel and his friends were to be fed on only vegetables and water while the other servants were to be fed on that which the king assigned and also that which he drunk for ten days. The result of this challenge fortified Daniel’s claims that vegetables were much healthier.
Have you ever faced risk which caused you to want to compromise your beliefs?
Yes. I have come across some risks that which were so compelling and were tempting enough towards making a compromise of my beliefs and convictions.
How should one handle those risks?
Out of that experience, l suggest that when subjected to such severe risks, one should only strive to stay true to his beliefs regardless of the prevailing circumstances or impending consequences that might ensue in the event of making a comprise to one’s beliefs.
- Daniel 11: 36-45
Does God reveal what is going to happen in multi-periods?
The verses are revelatory in the sense that seems to presage the fate of certain rulers that are egocentric, insensitive and defiant to the will of their subjects. According to the verse above, such rulers are excessively obsessed with expanding their territorial reigns, stretching and stamping their authority and commands over to other places beyond their areas of rightful jurisdictions and lastly, such leaders are also extremely obsessed with acquiring amassing possessions.
Is the time associated with this passage past, present, or future?
The time that associated with the passage could be said to be present and in some quarters, both past and future. In the current times, we have witnessed the fall of juggernauts of empires and Kingdoms and even organizations. For instance, not very long ago, we saw the collapse of the caliber of leaders whose discretions befits the one who is portrayed in the verse like former Libyan leader, Muammar Gaddafi, and many others. In the earlier 19th century, the Roman Empire also fell under similar circumstances. There is also substantial evidence relating to the past powerful kingdoms that fell. On that basis, it would be preposterous to rule out a similar fate befalling some other present empires and established political, economic and religious dynasties that are also bearing the same traits as the ones portrayed in the verse.
Can you depend on what God says as being true and coming true?
I ascribe to the doctrines of a religious outfit, and as l had earlier mentioned, the basis of such ascriptions are based on faith and beliefs. I, therefore, can confess that l believe in the excellent personality of God and consequently, l depend on whatever He proclaims as true. I also believe in his prophecies which l view as certain and non-retractable eventualities that must come to pass.
How does this affect your view of the daily circumstances you face?
This belief affects my view of the daily circumstances I face positively because it makes me approach my undertakings with a flexible mentality. More often than not, I accept the results of my efforts with an assurance that they are not circumstantial but that they reflect the will of God.
How does God’s control of the future affect the selection of a political candidate for local, state or national office?
God’s control of the future affects the selection of political candidates for the afore-stated different sets of jurisdictions in a positive manner. It makes it easier for politicians who have been subjected to a fair electoral process to accept their fate when they lose and also for those who won through the same process get to contend with their victories. Such believes create a win-win situation after such competitions which are favorable for their well-being of a constituency or a nation.
Part II.
- What does it mean to be risk averse or risk neutral?
Risk-averse is the state of preferring a decision that involves a lower risk when subjected to two distinct sets of conditions which have equal returns but different levels of risks. On the other hand, risk neutrality is a state when an individual does not seem to value or evaluate the level of risk when making a decision. In investment terms, a risk-neutral investor could be placed in the middle of the risk spectrum bearing the risk-averse investors or persons against their risk-seeking counterparts.
How important is it to evaluate risk and to evaluate how sensitive to risk any business, personal, or academic decision you have made or are making?
It is essential to weigh the viability of any undertaking when making a decision. For instance, when formulating a business idea, it is prudent to conduct a feasibility study of that particular business as well as the dominating circumstances within the locality of interest.
- What is the essence of Decision Theory?
Decision theory is a study of strategies to achieve some excellence regarding making decisions or when weighing up options in consideration of different expectations or risks lurking in the nclear choices. In simpler terms, Decision theory is concerned with the logic involved in an agent’s choices. An agent, in this context, implies an entity which could be an individual, a company or any other party. Decision theory can be divided into two branches which include normative decision theory and descriptive decision theory. The significance of this theory is based on placing value or a logical basis towards making decisions.
How can the concept of decision theory be used in your business, personal or academic activities?
This essential concept of decision making can be used in my activities, either personal or business, to enhance some sustenance and productivity by ensuring that only the best line of decisions is made at any given time. In essence, it could be applied to achieve optimality in business management.
- What is an expected monetary value?
Expected monetary value is a ball-park estimate of the amount that could be achieved by a plaintiff against a defendant through a mediation process. Likewise, financial value is the value, in currency, that a market, an individual, or a business places on a service, product or a particular resource.
How does the EMV contrast to the monetary value?
An expected monetary value contrasts with the monetary value in the sense that the former is hugely based on the prevailing market assumptions while the latter reflects the true picture of economic status at a certain point in time.
Why is it important for a decision maker to ignore irrelevant data?
It is prudent for a decision maker to overlook insignificant sources of data when undertaking a decision-making process to avoid incidences of making wrong decisions. Wrong decisions can only translate to circumstantial losses from the relevant procedures. For instance, in setting out an expected monetary value, it is vital to refer to appropriate sources to assist in fixing reasonable cost. Probability is the likelihood of an occurrence. A good decision-making process is an essential aspect in achieving good predictions.
- If the perfect information is never available, why consider it?
Despite the fact that perfect information is never available, it is necessary to consider the significance of accessing almost-perfect sources of information in a circumspective manner to avert a situation of making wrong decisions.
Cite several examples of how you can positively affect or alter the downside risk associated with any decision.
One of the instances where l can positively alter the downside risk associated with a decision is a situation where l have undertaken to establish a pork business where the potential customers are adherents of the Islam religion. On realizing that it would be extremely difficult to register the projected returns, l would initiate a paradigm shift that shall entail a change in the stock. For instance, in the given situation, l would replace pork with beef to make it more appealing and to attract more clients. Consequently, more customers would translate to better turnouts.
Another case scenario where l would seek topositively affect the downside risk associated with any decision is when l have committed to study a particular course which later turns out to be obsolete. It could be obsolete because it has been lost its relevancy in the job market due to the introduction of more appealing courses. In such a case, l would swiftly undertake an interfaculty transfer to a more relevant course instead of sticking to my initial idea of course choice that would not add much value to my educational needs.
- Why is it important to know the internal rate of return and the hurdle rate?
Internal rate of return and hurdle rate
The internal rate of return refers to the metric used to calculate the interest rate at which the current value of all cash flows from an investment equals to zero. On that basis, internal rate of return is majorly used to evaluate the feasibility or profitability of any particular project. The internal rate of return is calculated by the following formulas;-
NPV= Sums of T by Ct/ (1+R) ^ T – Co
Where;
Ct = net cash inflow during the period T
Co= total initial investment costs
R= discount rate and;
T = number of time periods
Relatively, hurdle rate is the minimum rate that a given investment expects to achieve when plunging in that particular project. In other terms, hurdle rate is the required rate of return.
What is the difference in cash flow and profit?
Cash flow and profit
Cash flow refers to the total amount of cash and its equivalents that are being transferred into or out of a business which has effects on the business in terms of liquidity. Profit is the financial gains that are achieved when output exceeds all the expenses needed to sustain the project. In basic terms, they are the surplus or the difference between the purchase price and the accrued market operational costs.
Why determine the present value for any decision which flows into multi-periods?
It is prudent to establish the present value of any decision to gauge the sustainability that is embodied in that particular undertaking. With a proper knowledge of the current value of a choice, one could be assisted in making the necessary projections which are crucial in evaluating the viability of decisions.
- Time Value of money
Time value of money (TVM) describes the ultimate benefit of receiving money at a present time of reference rather than later. Or, it could be described as the idea that money available at a present time carries more worth that the same amount of money in the future due to the potential earning capacity it holds. The principle of time value for money forms the basis of which interests are earned or paid. However, time value can be evaluated in two-fold; Future value and present value. The former can be calculated using the following formula;
FV= PV (1+R) ^ N
And Present value can be determined as shown below;
PV= FV (1+R) ^ N
Where;
PV= Present value
R = Interest rate earned on the money
N = Number of year that the money is kept away and;
FV= Amount of money that will be earned in the future or at the end
Re-investment rate
Re-investment rate refers to the amount of interests that could be earned when capital is withdrawn from one fixed-income investment and transferred to another. It can also be defined as the rate at which an investor can reinvest cash flows from a particular investment.
Workings
| Investment A | Investment B | |
| Total Initial Investment Cost | $100000 | $100000 |
| Net Cash Inflow | 25000 | 15000 |
| Discount rate | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Number of Time Periods | 3 | 3 |
NPV
Solution
NPV= Sums of T by Ct/ (1+R) ^ T – Co
Where;
Ct = net cash inflow during the period T
Co= total initial investment costs
R= discount rate and;
T = number of time periods
Investment A;
NPV= 3(25000)/ (1+0.1) ^ 3 – 100000
Investment B;
NPV=3(15000)/ (1+0.1) ^ 3 – 100000
Therefore;
Investment A has a NPV of $43651.39
Investment B has NPV of $ 66190.834
Hence, Investment B is more profitable since it has higher NPV
